|
Home |
|||
|
Hotel & Travel |
|||
|
Agenda & Programs |
|||
|
Mastermind Keynotes |
|||
|
One-on-Ones |
|||
|
ITxpo |
|||
|
ITxpo Marketplaces |
|||
|
Partners |
|||
|
Brochure (PDF) |
|||
|
Documentation |
|||
Past Symposium/ITxpo
|
|
||||||||
|
Monday, 7 October 2002 IT technology is improving rapidly and will continue doing so for at least a decade, said Carl Claunch, Gartner vice president and director of research Monday. Mr. Claunch, a 30-year IT veteran in such areas as banking and manufacturing, told Gartner Symposium ITxpo 2002 attendees what to expect in the next decade of IT. Strike Up the Bandwidth Mr. Claunch says network capacity will increase faster than computing, memory and storage capacity to produce a significant shift in the relative cost of accomplishing a task remotely versus locally. Capacity will become less expensive as optical technology improvements yield lower costs for devices and network operations. Layoffs Amid a Strong Economy In some cases, improvements in productivity will mean that a growing business with healthy margins will require fewer and fewer people, producing layoffs in a time of plenty. This shift of people out of automated areas will create some social problems, but new demands for labor will arise to accommodate them. Vendors Vanish and Re-emerge Mr. Claunch says times are difficult for many vendors now and predicts that half of today's software vendors will be gone by 2004. "Not only will the small and weak disappear," says Mr. Claunch, "major players will merge or be acquired to cause even well-known and substantial brands to vanish." The number of vendors will begin to grow again by 2007, when there is an improved economic climate, along with new ideas and technologies that will generate a new round of innovation, start-ups and funding. Moore's Law Stays on the Books Nearly 40 years ago, Gordon Moore of Intel said famously that semiconductor capabilities would double every 18 months. And that's not changing," says Mr. Claunch. "We project that this observation will continue to be true past the end of this decade at least, allowing us to remain on the speeding train of technology improvements." Banks Will Assume a Key Role The role of "presence service" (the notification that a person or resource of interest is available for use) will migrate from the current providers, the network service operators and software vendors, to banks that provide the trustworthiness we expect. Financial service providers are well-positioned to take on this role, Mr. Claunch says, having high IT expertise, extensive systems in place and proven abilities to deliver private and safe services. Business-activity Monitoring Becomes Mainstream Look for more business decisions to be made by individuals rather than simply enacted by individuals based on automated policies. Business-activity monitoring provides more of the relevant facts and context to people, which allows decisions to be deferred until needed, rather than determined in advance. Business Units Will Make IT Decisions As the business value of IT becomes evident, more IT decisions will be made by business leaders. This can already be seen in decisions on business applications such as ERP, but increasingly, all IT decisions will filter out to the business departments affected. "As IT decisions move to the business departments," Mr. Claunch said, "they will often be less optimal overall than the centrally planned decisions previously made by IT." Pendulum Swings to Decentralization Mr. Claunch expects the pendulum to swing back toward decentralization for many clients in 2004. Eased budget restrictions will combine with difficulties reacting to volatile markets or strong competitive pressures, pushing the return to more decentralization of IT systems. Major Systems will be Inter-Enterprise Look for the creation of dynamic systems that can form, use and break connections between separate entities with minimal advance planning. These new systems that allow ad-hoc, trans-enterprise automation are supported by technologies such as Web services, XML and improved business application integration capabilities. Economic Boost from Enterprise Systems Enterprise systems will cut waste and inefficiency producing improvements in productivity, says Mr. Claunch. The result will be more efficient use of production equipment, lower inventory levels and less waste as entire systems react more rapidly to change. Jim Grodnik Gartner Staff Writer |
|
||||||
|
|
|||||||
