 |
|
   
|
|
|
|
Michael Fleisher, Gartner Chairman and CEO |
|
|
|
Welcome Address:
Gartner CEO Urges Return to Dreams of Technology Magic
Monday, 10 March 2003
Gartner expects conditions to remain bleak for technology industries in 2003. "But we see a high probability of significant improvement coming to the technology sector in 2004," says Gartner chairman and CEO, Michael Fleisher.
In welcoming delegates to Symposium/ITxpo 2003 in Florence, Italy, on Monday, Fleisher explained this confidence in terms of supply and demand. In the last two years, Gartner has urged clients to take advantage of over-capacity in the industry to win better deals. Now, Fleisher said, "The end of this over-capacity is within sight." Rationalization and consolidation by vendors will likely reach its crescendo by the end of this year.
On the demand side, Fleisher points out the dangers of recent delays in upgrading and replacing hardware and software: "These needs can be deferred for only so long," he says. "Basic financial and operational pressures will compel significant replacement of these systems beginning in late 2003 and rising rapidly in 2004."
Another factor is that many companies have so far failed to take advantage of continuing gains in price/performance and in technical developments such as the emergence of Web services. Fleisher says, "The benefits will be so obvious and tangible that companies will spend."
Fleisher concedes that present uncertainties mean that the timing of a recovery is still uncertain, and he accepts that "everyone must react to the moment, to the many short-term problems and concerns that demand immediate attention.
"But it's important that we not lose ourselves in the emotion of this moment."
Taking a longer view, Fleisher worries that "We seem frightened to dream anymore about where all this marvelous technology can take us."
He rejects suggestions that the world already has all the computing power and bandwidth that it needs. "Almost any activity that we as humans do - from the profoundly important to the trivial and amusing - will likely by advanced by more computing power," he says, and ever more bandwidth will be required as ordinary physical objects, from pens to clothing may become nodes on a network.
"It is simply inconceivable," he says, "that technology will not significantly grow in its importance to business and to almost every human endeavor.
"Our mutual challenge," Fleisher says, "is taking advantage of what this industry can and will be in 2004 and beyond, while dealing with the bleak reality of 2003."
Jonathan Green-Armytage
Gartner Staff
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
