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Peter Sondergaard, Gartner research director, and Juan Rada, Oracle EMEA |
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Mastermind Keynote:
Vendors Expect Linux to Enter the Mainstream
Tuesday, 11 March 2003
Vendors took the stage for Gartner's Keynote interview at Symposium/ITxpo 2003 in Florence on Monday. Facing Peter Sondergaard, practice research director, and vice presidents Betsy Burton and Andy Butler were:
Juan Rada, senior vice president of Oracle for Europe, the Middle East and Africa
Gerard Van Kemmel, president of Novell, EMEA
Elie Simon, vice president, Sun Microsystems, EMEA
An issue that engaged all three is Linux, the operating system developed by the open-source community of programmers.
Juan Rada, of Oracle, said Linux is becoming more mainstream and is being used in more complex environments. "Next year it won't be an issue," he said. "Linux is here to stay." At present, it is available on 35 percent of servers. That will rise to 75 percent by June of this year and it will be 100 percent next year. But he qualified this endorsement: "Linux is an embryonic technology and it has a long way to go."
Novell's Gerard Van Kemmel says his company shares the view that Linux is still embryonic, "but it is developing rapidly."
Elie Simon says Sun will be hedging its bets and maintain compatibility between its own Solaris operating system, its Orion integration project, as well as Linux. But he distanced Sun from those who see Linux as only an opportunity to sell services since the cost of running a Linux system could be up to five times higher than with other systems.
Their responses to the issue of getting Linux onto desktop and home computers are more diverse. Simon believes desktop use could be the thin end of a wedge getting Linux into the home if the open-source community gets interested in writing drivers for all the peripherals used by consumers.
Rada is more dismissive: "Why do you need Linux in the home?" he asks. The industry is fragmenting. "We are moving from having systems for home and for office to a world where computing is ubiquitous. This means that Microsoft will start facing new kinds of competitors such as Symbian, Sony and Nintendo. "Microsoft," he says, "is not what it used to be. In two years from now it will be just one more player."
The implied arrival of mobility and ubiquity gives all three vendors possibilities for the future. Van Kemmel hinted that next month Novell will announce extensions to NetWare to handle mobile devices. Simon said Sun will be offering mobility with security, and Rada said Oracle will be aiming to help companies increase effectiveness by getting into collaboration for wireless workers.
As for the future of Linux, they all agree that it will soon become mainstream, but when challenged as to what each understood by "mainstream," none offered a clear definition that a user organization would likely relate to.
Jonathan Green-Armytage
Gartner Staff
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