 |
|
   
|
|
|
|
Michael Fleisher, Gartner Chairman and CEO |
|
|
|
Welcome Address:
Michael Fleisher Keynote: Significant Tech Recovery in Sight for 2004
Monday, 24 March 2003
Despite the current drumbeat of bad news — the war in Iraq, the protracted global economic slump, flagrant corporate wrongdoing — that has created a period of profound business uncertainty and unrest, good times will nevertheless return to the IT sector next year.
Gartner chairman and CEO Michael Fleisher made that hopeful prognostication in his opening keynote Monday at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2003 in San Diego.
Countering a sense of what he called "deep pessimism," Mr. Fleisher exhorted attendees to not despair. "Although our outlook for 2003 remains bleak," he said, "we see a high probability of significant improvement to the tech sector in 2004."
The reason, forecasts Mr. Fleisher, is that demand for IT equipment will exceed supply by year-end 2003. Businesses have deferred replacement of their now-outmoded systems for as long as they can tolerate, and change-out of that installed base will increase in 2004. "The benefits of doing so will be so obvious and tangible that companies will be forced to spend," he said.
Because of this growing demand/supply imbalance, a 2004 tech recovery will not be contingent on a global economic upturn, he added. Moreover, pricing power will return to vendors, instead of buyers, which will further fuel production.
Finally, Mr. Fleisher urged attendees to not give up their dreams about the transforming potential of IT. Referring to the much-ballyhooed technology innovations and business models of the late 1990s — such as electronic paper and ink, and global e-commerce marketplaces — he suggested that the disappointments of the late 1990s "will turn into the success stories of 2004 and 2005."
"We seem too frightened to dream anymore. This is a terrible mistake," he concluded, "because IT's long-term prospects are bright."
Michael Gomez
Gartner Staff
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
